Taiwan: China will attack Taiwan and defeat any ally of Taiwan by 2020

Taiwan StraitMere days after Taiwan’s Defense Minister Yen Ming had said that his country’s armed forces are fully capable of deterring China, a biennial report issued by Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense (MND) said that China has been modernizing its weaponry and that by 2020, China will have developed a “wholly sufficient” military presence near Taiwan to launch an all-out attack, as well as defeat any ally of Taiwan (i.e., USA) coming to the latter’s defense.

The UPI reports (via Breitbart.com), Oct. 8, 2013, that Cheang Yun-pung, head of Taiwan’s MND’s Department of Strategic Planning, said China’s military development is aimed both at Taiwan and at a credible deterrent to the United States. He cited China’s deployment of Dong Feng 21D anti-ship ballistic missiles, known as “aircraft carrier-killer” missiles, that could be used if the United States tried to intervene on Taiwan’s behalf.

China claims Taiwan while effectively allowing it to function as a separate state as long as it does not actually declare independence. Taiwan has no representation in the United Nations and few countries have formal diplomatic relations with it.

According to Reuters, this is the first time the Taiwanese defense ministry has given such a precise deadline for a potential successful invasion. “Over the long-term, it will be wholly sufficient to engage in a war over Taiwan by 2020,” the report argues, citing several developments the Chinese military has been endeavoring to fund recently, particularly “long-range precision strike weaponry” capabilities. That calculation takes into account not only the Taiwanese military but any intervening power.

Frances Martel writes for Breitbart.com that Beijing has officially responded that they have yet to see the full report, but are optimistic about the “momentum of peaceful development” between the two parties, calling talks “beneficial to both sides.”

The report comes at a pivotal time in relations between Taiwan and China. Taiwan asserts its sovereignty as the Republic of China, while China views the island as a province falsely asserting said sovereignty and has encouraged talks while not discounting the possibility of using force. The summer was wrought with tension as activists clashed in Taiwan over a potential trade agreement with mainland China that could make the island more economically dependent on what many perceive to be a military threat.

While the potential for a trade agreement circulated, Taiwan sided with the United States during talks regarding multilateral trade in the South China Sea, calling for freer navigation for trade vessels.

Recently, Chinese President Xi Jinping called for talks between the two governments, arguing that the division “should be resolved step-by-step” in a negotiating process. Calls on the part of Taiwan for military reinforcements continued nonetheless, however. Deputy Defense Minister Yen Teh-fa, on a visit to the United States earlier this month, called for the United States to send further aid to their defense, describing China as a continued “grave threat.”

The words came as something of a surprise to those following the rise of Taiwan’s President Ma Ying-jeou, who is perceived to be more China-friendly than his predecessors.

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6 responses to “Taiwan: China will attack Taiwan and defeat any ally of Taiwan by 2020

  1. Pingback: China Will Attack Taiwan And Defeat An Ally Of Taiwan By 2020 | Fortuna's Corner

  2. CODA member Jay Gaskill sends this email from Norway where he’s traveling:

    “One more reason that the 2016 election is critically important.”


  3. I would say the opposite is true, and (assuming America truly commits to preventing China from succeeding) the window of opportunity for a successful invasion of Taiwan is closing. The capability gap between what the PLA needs to be able to pull it off, and what America (oh yeah, and Taiwan, too) can theoretically do to prevent it, is growing wider over the next five to ten years at least, not closing.


  4. This is one significant reason, although not the only reason, why the DF-21D is not anywhere close to being the show-stopping “carrier-killer” that some China Henny Penny’s cackle about.


    Raytheon’s newest Standard Missile-3 intercepts medium-range ballistic missile target
    Oct 09, 2013

    In a Missile Defense Agency test, the U.S. Navy fired a Standard Missile-3 Block IB, made by Raytheon, from the USS Lake Erie. The SM-3 eliminated the medium-range ballistic missile (MRBM) target.

    “We remain on track to deliver this critical capability in time for a 2015 deployment in support of global combatant command requirements, and specifically phase two of the European Phased Adaptive Approach,” said Dr. Taylor Lawrence, president of Raytheon Missile Systems.

    The test was the 26th successful intercept for the SM-3 program and the fifth back-to-back successful test of the next-generation SM-3 Block IB guided missile.

    “The missile continues to perform, increasing confidence in the SM-3 Block IB’s readiness for production,” said Dr. Mitch Stevison, Raytheon Missile Systems’ SM-3 program director.

    SM-3s destroy incoming ballistic missile threats by colliding with them, a concept sometimes described as “hitting a bullet with a bullet.” The impact is the equivalent of a 10-ton truck traveling at 600 mph.

    + More than 155 SM-3s have been delivered to the U.S. and Japanese navies.
    + Raytheon is on track to deliver the next-generation SM-3 Block IB in 2015.
    + SM-3 Block IB will be deployed in both sea-based and land-based modes.


    Lockheed Martin’s Aegis BMD System Completes Highest Target Intercept Yet
    Oct 09, 2013

    The Missile Defense Agency (MDA), U.S. Navy and Lockheed Martin team have intercepted a threat representative, medium-range, separating ballistic missile target using the second generation Aegis Ballistic Missile Defense (BMD) weapon system and SM-3 Block IB guided missile.

    By successfully launching, tracking, and engaging the newest medium-range ballistic missile target configuration during this operational test, known as Flight Test – Standard Missile-22 (FTM-22), Aegis BMD continued to demonstrate its capabilities to defend against the world’s increasingly sophisticated ballistic missile threats.

    Building on the success of last month’s test (FTM-21), FTM-22 marked the eleventh time the USS Lake Erie (CG 70) and crew have successfully performed in Navy and MDA at-sea test events against cruise and ballistic missile targets using the second generation Aegis BMD System.

    “This threat scenario against a medium-range target represented the potential threats that we’re facing in today’s defense environment – and this latest Aegis BMD mission success, run by the Sailors of the USS Lake Erie, demonstrated the readiness of our missile defense capabilities to take on those threats,” said Nick Bucci, director of BMD development programs at Lockheed Martin’s Mission Systems and Training business.

    “As the targets and threat scenarios become more advanced, our Aegis BMD system is keeping pace with innovative solutions to safeguard our global security.”

    The Aegis BMD 4.0.X configuration enables the Navy to quickly defeat sophisticated ballistic missile threats by integrating sensors from space, land and sea for persistent and reliable detection.

    The central component of the Lockheed Martin-developed Aegis BMD Combat System is the SPY-1 radar, the most widely fielded naval phased array radar in the world. The Aegis system and SPY-1 radar provide the U.S. and allied nations with advanced surveillance, anti-air warfare and missile defense capabilities.

    The Missile Defense Agency and Navy are jointly developing Aegis BMD as part of the U.S. Ballistic Missile Defense System. Currently, 27 Aegis BMD-equipped warships have the certified capability to engage ballistic missiles and perform long-range surveillance and tracking missions, as well as an additional four ships in the Japanese Maritime Self-Defense Force.

    The U.S. Navy plans to procure seven new Aegis BMD-equipped destroyers, and has also planned to develop two Aegis Ashore systems to perform ballistic missile defense.


  5. Taiwan’s concern regarding Beijing is existential in nature, somewhat closer to Israel’s situation vs the ruling Hamas (how can one negotiate with an adversary that does not agree your right to exist?). The most credible war concept Taiwan could employ is super-precision munitions especially railguns and layers of mini UCAVS (likewise with super-precise munitions). In which case Taiwan needs to increase it R&D spending on such armaments, of course in addition to its need for new-generation of quieter submarines. For defensive purposes the Shield-of-Zeus (Aegis system) anti-MRBM system is what Taiwan needs to “umbrella” itself. But more than this Taiwan’s greatest need today is networking for defensive reasons with UN member smaller states now being bullied by Beijing. To counter China’s island-chain concept Taiwan needs Japan, Indonesia, India, Vietnam and the Philippines: call it Asian arm-to-arm defense. Uncle Sam’s rebalancing (née pivot) will have substance.


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